Why “Frontier Firms” Are Rewriting Leadership Pipelines (And What Talent Leaders Must Do Now about Succession Plans)
The Wake-Up Call
When I ‘walked’ out of Matthew Duncan’s virtual session at the Microsoft & AI Agents Summit with a clarity that’s been nagging at me for months.
While Talent leaders are debating 9-box ratings and “ready now” vs “ready in 18 months” for leadership pipelines…
We’re completely missing who’s actually going to be on those teams.
The Data Nobody’s Discussing in Succession Planning
Microsoft’s 2025 Work Trend Index reveals something succession planners are ignoring:
- 82% of business leaders say they’ll turn to digital labor to boost workforce capacity within 12-18 months
- 78% of executives plan to fill new AI-centric positions, including AI workforce managers, AI agent specialists, and agent trainers
- 28% of managers are considering hiring AI workforce managers specifically
Not in 2030. Not “someday.” Actually in the next 12-18 months!
The Question Nobody’s Asking
When your VP of Customer Service retires in 2026, what are you actually replacing?
Traditional succession thinking:
- One human leader → One human successor
- Same competencies, same team structure
- Standard “ready now” or “ready in 18 months” timeline
Reality in 2026:
- One human + 3 AI agents → ?
- New competencies (AI orchestration, delegation to autonomous systems)
- Hybrid teams where the “team” includes non-human capacity
The succession question has fundamentally changed:
Are you replacing:
- One human leader?
- One human + multiple AI agents?
- A “hybrid team” orchestrator managing 10+ agents?
What “Frontier Firms” Already Know
Microsoft identifies early adopters as “Frontier Firms” — companies already operating with human-agent teams at scale.
The performance gap is stark:
- 71% of employees at Frontier Firms report business success
- 37% at traditional firms report the same
That’s not a small edge. That’s a competitive chasm.
What makes Frontier Firms different?
They’re not treating AI agents as “tools” or “productivity enhancements.”
They’re treating them as workforce capacity — part of the organizational chart, part of team structures, part of succession planning.
The Succession Planning Blind Spot
I’ve spent 2+ years integrating AI into a robust data collection talent analytics and succession planning process across a senior leaders in a 30-country organization.
Here’s what I’m seeing that succession plans are missing:
1. Which leaders can effectively delegate to AI agents (not just humans)
The competencies that made someone a great people leader don’t automatically translate to orchestrating autonomous systems.
2. Who has the technical fluency to “boss” AI
Understanding when to trust an AI agent’s recommendation vs when to override it is a critical leadership skill we’re not assessing.
3. Which roles will be human-first vs agent-first in 18 months
Customer service, marketing, and product development are seeing the highest AI investment. Your succession plan needs role-specific forecasts.
4. How to measure “AI orchestration capability”
We’ve added it to leadership competency frameworks, but most organizations haven’t even started this conversation.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Your High Potentials
Scenario 1: The “People Leader”
Your high potential is brilliant at motivating teams, giving feedback, building culture.
But they can’t articulate what AI should handle vs what humans must own.
They’re uncomfortable with technical systems. They prefer “gut instinct” over data-driven insights.
In 2024: They’re on your succession plan for a VP role.
In 2026: They’re not ready to lead hybrid human-agent teams.
Scenario 2: The “Technical Leader”
Your technical expert intuitively understands system orchestration and delegation to autonomous tools.
But they’re dismissed as “not strategic enough” or “too in the weeds”, or “low situational or self awareness/emotionally intelligent”
In 2024: They’re not on your succession plan, or if they are it is because there is no-one else. This then drives a development offer that forces them to work on their weaknesses, which lets be honest never works. They then look to leave as they are not valued and become a flight risk.
In 2026: They might be your most critical succession candidate, and you just let them go in a restructure!
The shift: Leadership in 2026 isn’t “people skills” OR “technical skills.”
It’s both, integrated, augmented, together.
What This Means for Talent Leaders RIGHT NOW
If you’re responsible for succession planning, here’s what needs to change immediately:
1. Map the Human-Agent Ratio for Every Critical Role
Don’t assume one human → one human succession.
Questions to ask:
- Which functions will add AI capacity in the next 12-18 months?
- What’s the realistic human-agent team structure in 2026?
- How does this change the competency profile for successors?
Example:
Your VP Customer Service currently manages 500 people.
In 2026, they might manage 30 people + 15 AI agents handling tier-1 support, data analysis, and escalation routing.
That’s a fundamentally different leadership role.
2. Add AI Orchestration Capability to Leadership Competencies
Update your leadership frameworks NOW to include:
✅ Delegation to autonomous systems: Can they define what AI should handle?
✅ Override judgment: Do they know when to trust vs question AI recommendations?
✅ Technical fluency: Can they collaborate with data scientists, AI specialists?
✅ Hybrid team management: Can they lead humans AND agents effectively?
3. Forecast Which Roles Become “Agent Boss” Roles
Not every leadership role will look the same.
Agent-heavy roles (2026):
- Customer service leadership
- Marketing operations
- Data analysis teams
- Compliance and risk monitoring
Human-heavy roles (still):
- Culture and people development
- Strategic decision-making
- Complex stakeholder management
- Innovation and creativity
Your succession plan needs role-specific strategies, not one-size-fits-all…and to that guess what – you need to be all over AI as well.
4. Assess Successors for Technical Fluency + Strategic Thinking
Stop evaluating leadership potential as either/or.
The future leader is both/and:
- Strategic thinking AND technical fluency
- People leadership AND system orchestration
- Emotional intelligence AND data literacy
Update your assessment tools:
- Add technical scenarios to leadership simulations
- Test delegation to AI systems (not just humans)
- Evaluate comfort with autonomous decision-making tools
The Window Is Closing
Here’s the reality check:
2024: Most companies are still in “AI experimentation” mode
2025: Early adopters (Frontier Firms) are scaling human-agent teams
2026: The performance gap will be too wide to close quickly
2027: You may even work for an AI Agent Manager!
If your succession plan still looks the same as it did in 2023, you’re not just behind.
You’re planning for a workforce structure that’s already obsolete.
What I’m Doing About It
Right now I am building a future ready infrastructure that can plugin in AI as implementation of AI catches up. This means I can be more agile, able to update the following on the fly:
Competency framework updates adding AI orchestration, technical fluency, and hybrid team management to leadership profiles
Succession scenario planning mapping human-agent ratios for every VP+ role through 2027
Assessment redesign testing successors’ ability to delegate to and manage autonomous systems
Development programs building AI literacy and orchestration skills in high potentials
Talent intelligence using AI to identify who has the technical + people skills combination for 2026 leadership
It’s not perfect. I am learning as I go too, in fact M365 Copilot got a test drive today too.
But I am planning for the workforce that’s coming, not the one we probably wish would stay the same.
The Call to Action
Stop treating AI agents as “productivity tools” in your succession planning.
They’re workforce capacity. They’re team members. They’re part of the leadership equation.
Ask yourself:
- Does your succession plan account for human-agent teams?
- Are your leadership competencies updated for AI orchestration?
- Can your high potentials actually “boss” autonomous systems?
- Are you identifying successors with technical + people skills?
If the answer is “not yet,” the time to act is now.
Because 2026 leadership will look fundamentally different than 2024.
And if we’re not factoring AI agents into succession strategy today, we’re setting up our organizations — and our successors — to fail.
About the Author
Martin Knowles is a Consultant/Executive Contractor and former Executive Director of Talent Development with 25+ years leading learning and talent strategy across global organizations. He’s been integrating AI into succession planning and talent analytics for 2+ years and is actively exploring opportunities to help organizations build future-ready talent strategies.
Connect on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/martin-lewis-knowles
What are you seeing in your succession planning? Are AI agents part of the conversation yet, or are we all still planning like it’s 2024? Share your perspective in the comments.
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